Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
